Pre-tourney Rankings
Ohio Valley
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 Belmont 40.3%   25 - 5 16 - 2 25 - 5 16 - 2 +9.0      +7.4 21 +1.6 126 76.1 33 +10.0 51 +8.8 1
56 Murray St. 100.0%   12   25 - 4 16 - 2 25 - 4 16 - 2 +8.4      +5.3 43 +3.1 93 71.2 112 +10.4 48 +7.8 2
129 Jacksonville St. 0.0%   22 - 9 15 - 3 22 - 9 15 - 3 +2.9      +0.3 169 +2.6 103 68.8 174 +3.4 121 +5.7 3
140 Austin Peay 0.0%   20 - 11 13 - 5 20 - 11 13 - 5 +1.9      +4.3 66 -2.4 242 71.1 116 +1.6 141 +1.4 4
260 Eastern Kentucky 0.0%   11 - 18 6 - 12 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5.8      -4.0 283 -1.8 223 90.2 2 -5.7 258 -8.4 7
262 Morehead St. 0.0%   11 - 20 8 - 10 11 - 20 8 - 10 -5.9      -1.4 212 -4.6 294 68.2 193 -5.3 249 -4.8 5
297 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   10 - 19 6 - 12 10 - 19 6 - 12 -8.1      0.0 178 -8.0 346 70.0 141 -8.0 293 -9.1 8
311 Tennessee St. 0.0%   7 - 21 6 - 12 7 - 21 6 - 12 -9.2      -5.0 303 -4.2 285 72.6 84 -11.0 323 -9.7 10
313 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 -9.3      -3.4 269 -5.9 320 67.3 219 -6.5 274 -7.8 6
317 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   8 - 21 5 - 13 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9.5      -4.8 297 -4.7 297 69.4 155 -10.1 317 -10.7 11
326 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   6 - 23 4 - 14 6 - 23 4 - 14 -11.2      -10.8 345 -0.4 176 70.5 130 -13.0 332 -12.5 12
329 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   8 - 21 6 - 12 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11.7      -5.7 312 -6.0 326 72.3 90 -10.4 319 -9.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Murray St. 1.0 100.0
Jacksonville St. 3.0 100.0
Austin Peay 4.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 7.0 100.0
Morehead St. 5.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 7.0 100.0
Tennessee St. 7.0 100.0
Eastern Illinois 6.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 11.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 12.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 7.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 16 - 2 100.0
Murray St. 16 - 2 100.0
Jacksonville St. 15 - 3 100.0
Austin Peay 13 - 5 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 6 - 12 100.0
Morehead St. 8 - 10 100.0
Tennessee Martin 6 - 12 100.0
Tennessee St. 6 - 12 100.0
Eastern Illinois 7 - 11 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 5 - 13 100.0
Tennessee Tech 4 - 14 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0
Jacksonville St.
Austin Peay
Eastern Kentucky
Morehead St.
Tennessee Martin
Tennessee St.
Eastern Illinois
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Tech
SIU Edwardsville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 40.3% 0.0% 40.3% 0.0 0.4 3.6 17.9 18.3 0.1 59.7 40.3%
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.1 1.0 8.5 77.7 12.5 0.3
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 40.3% 31.9% 23.5% 6.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 25.9% 7.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 59.7 40.3
1st Round 100.0% 1.2 76.5 23.5
2nd Round 31.1% 0.3 68.9 29.5 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.1
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0